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Earthquake risk assessment is no where near an exact science.

What geologists will say with certainty is that southwestern B.C. has the highest earthquake risk in Canada, that a quake measuring between 8 and 9 on the Richter scale is apt to occur only once in 500 years. And that the North West region has been hit by only three quakes of this magnitude in 131 years.

The last one we had, in 1946, measured 7.3 and hit near Courtenay on Vancouver Island, the largest on-shore quake in Canadian history. Do these stats put B.C. students in jeopardy anytime soon? Especially kids in Vancouver, which has the largest number of old, wobbly schools, by far?

A feisty group of Vancouver parents with children in the public education system would prefer not to find out after it's too late.

Families for School Seismic Safety, a local lobby group, compared the progress of seismic preparation of the city's 47 at-risk schools to that planned by Seattle officials for their old buildings.

The difference is startling: Seattle has an aggressive plan to complete all upgrades in five years.

Whereas Vancouver, at the rate of one or two schools per year and a total cost of $400 million, will need 30 years or more to complete seismic safety measures.

Viewed another way, the two West Coast cities had a similar number of schools coded as high or moderate risk 20 years ago -- 51 in Seattle and 59 here.

As of last year, only 17 Seattle schools remained to be upgraded, compared to 47 in Vancouver, housing 32,000 students and staff.

The lobby group says a timeline of 10 to 15 years is long enough. But like most infrastructure needs, it comes down to money. And raising the money became the responsibility of the school districts a few months ago, after the B.C. government ended its seismic mitigation program. School districts were told they'll have to find the cash in existing maintenance and capital budgets once this year's grant is used up.

The Vancouver lobby group and parents such as Burnaby physician Dr. Tracy Monk have urged Victoria to find the funds to fast-track the upgrading.

"They all seemed very concerned and potentially ready to do something about this," Monk said recently. We suggest they might try: Reviewing the list of 47 to see if some can stand the wait, revisit the overall cost assessment to where cuts are feasible and/or set up a provincial lottery to raise funds for what many see as a life-saving cause.

What do you think? Leave a brief comment, name and town at: 604-605-2029, fax: 604-605-2099 or e-mail: provletters@png.canwest.com